BAKU, Azerbaijan, October 15. Many countries in
the South Caucasus and Central Asia are demonstrating resilience
amid the crisis in the Middle East, said Jihad Azour, Director of
the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) Middle East and Central
Asia Department during a briefing, Trend reports.
“Countries directly affected by the conflict are facing
significant pressure, while other economies in the Middle East,
North Africa, Afghanistan and Pakistan (MENAP) region, as well as a
significant number of countries in the Caucasus and Central Asia,
have demonstrated greater resilience,” he said.
Azour noted that the outlook largely depends on how quickly
energy production and trade normalize, as well as on countries’
ability to maintain macroeconomic stability.
“Against the backdrop of the conflict, oil production has fallen
sharply in almost all oil-exporting countries directly affected by
it. At the same time, disruptions to shipping and petroleum product
supplies have led to a significant increase in fuel prices.
“Nevertheless, the impact has been less severe than initially
anticipated. Pre-war fiscal surpluses, oil production outside the
Persian Gulf countries, alternative transportation routes, demand
adjustments, and the extensive use of accumulated reserves have
helped mitigate the negative effects,” he said.
Azour added that these factors had bought time, but their
capacity to cushion the impact was limited.
“Reserves have declined, spare production capacity has
decreased, and further disruptions could lead to much sharper price
fluctuations,” he noted.
