BAKU, Azerbaijan, October 15. In the medium
term, the global economy will not return to the growth trajectory
observed prior to the war in the Middle East, the Director of the
Middle East and Central Asia Department at the International
Monetary Fund, Jihad Azour said, Trend's correspondent reports.
“Undoubtedly, we are living in a world of high uncertainty, and,
as we noted earlier this week, all risks are skewed toward a
worsening of the situation.
Our forecast is based on the assumption that trade and shipping
will return to normal in the first quarter of 2027, after which
exports will gradually recover and normalize by about the middle of
the year,” he said.
According to him, the IMF expects oil prices to remain above the
level the organization projected in April, though they will
gradually begin to decline over time.
“We also assume that countries with the capacity to rapidly
increase production will take advantage of it. We were pleased to
learn that even Qatar, whose gas production facilities suffered
enormous damage, has been able to accelerate its recovery: it will
now take a year and a half instead of the three years previously
estimated,” he added.
Thus, as Azour noted, the IMF’s forecast is based on these
assumptions, which explain the expected rapid recovery in 2027.
“At the same time, our forecast also notes that, in the medium
term, the economy will not return to the growth trajectory observed
before the war.
Over the past six months, we are convinced that, despite the
severity of the shock, countries are capable of managing the
associated risks and mitigating its ultimate impact on prices. This
applies not only to exporting countries but also to importing
countries. It is also noteworthy that the consequences of the
crisis vary from country to country around the world, including
among countries in the region itself,” he added.
