BAKU, Azerbaijan, October 15. The International
Monetary Fund (IMF) projects global economic growth of 3.1% in 2026
and 3.4% in 2027, according to information published on the fund’s
website.
Global inflation is expected to reach 4.7% in 2026, mainly
driven by rising energy and food prices.
Deniz Igan, division chief in the IMF’s Research Department,
said the global economy continued to demonstrate resilience,
although growth was becoming increasingly uneven across
countries.
“Countries benefiting from the artificial intelligence-related
investment boom or favorable terms of trade are performing
relatively well, while many energy-importing countries and
low-income nations face much more challenging conditions,” she
said.
The fund warned that economies’ capacity to absorb new shocks
was diminishing, increasing downside risks to the global economic
outlook.
According to Igan, tensions in the Middle East could persist or
escalate, keeping energy and food prices elevated and putting
additional pressure on economic growth and inflation.
She also identified rising sovereign bond yields and renewed
trade tensions as other risks. Artificial intelligence could create
additional opportunities to boost productivity, but overly
optimistic expectations about the technology could also trigger
financial market corrections.
Against this backdrop, the IMF called on governments to address
immediate shocks without undermining medium-term economic
stability.
“Countries need to rebuild fiscal space without further delay,
given high debt levels and rising borrowing costs. Any support for
households facing higher food and energy prices should be temporary
and targeted,” Igan said.
She also stressed that monetary policy should remain
data-dependent and tailored to individual countries’ circumstances,
including their exposure to conflict-related disruptions and
technological change.
In the long term, strengthening energy security, improving
readiness for the adoption of artificial intelligence, and
preserving open trade and international cooperation will be
essential, according to the IMF.
