BAKU, Azerbaijan, October 30. Global oil supply
is expected to decline by 4.85 million barrels per day in 2026,
while it is projected to increase by 6.9 million barrels per day in
2027.
This was stated in the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies
(OIES) report, OIES Oil Monthly.
According to the report, the forecast for 2026 has been revised
upward by 160,000 barrels per day. This is due to a reduction in
the expected decline in supply in the third quarter by 810,000
barrels per day.
"In September, disruptions to oil supplies from the Middle East,
including the Persian Gulf region, are estimated at 7.1 million
barrels per day. This is 2.4 million barrels per day less than in
August. Saudi Arabia accounted for 88% of this reduction.
The forecast for the reduction in crude oil production by OPEC+
countries in the third quarter of 2026 has been revised downward by
610,000 barrels per day to 4.7 million barrels per day on an
annualized basis. In the fourth quarter, the reduction is expected
to slow to 4 million barrels per day.
At the same time, total oil supply from the Middle East is
projected to increase by 1.3 million barrels per day in the fourth
quarter compared to the previous quarter. However, supply
disruptions in the region could still amount to 6.1 million barrels
per day by the end of the year.
For 2026, the forecast for a reduction in crude oil production
by OPEC+ countries has been raised by 280,000 barrels per day to
4.1 million barrels per day.
The forecast for crude oil production growth by non-OPEC+
countries remains largely unchanged at 640,000 barrels per day.
Brazil will account for virtually all of the net increase in this
group.
At the same time, the forecast for the production of liquid
hydrocarbons, excluding crude oil, has been revised downward by
160,000 barrels per day. “Production of natural gas liquids (NGLs)
in the Middle East will remain limited,” the report states.
In addition, the report notes that the forecast for global oil
supply growth in 2027 has been lowered by 250,000 barrels per day
to 6.9 million barrels per day.
“This is due to a revision of estimates for crude oil production
by non-OPEC+ countries by 90,000 barrels per day and for the
production of liquid hydrocarbons, excluding crude oil, by 180,000
barrels per day,” the report explains.
According to OIES estimates, the Middle East region will account
for about 82% of the increase in global liquid hydrocarbon supply
in 2027. Saudi Arabia and Iraq together will account for nearly
half of this increase.
Iran is expected to account for about two-thirds of the
projected supply disruptions from the Middle East by the end of
2027, making its supply outlook one of the key sources of
uncertainty.
"In 2027, the United Arab Emirates will replace Brazil as the
main source of production growth among non-OPEC+ countries. The UAE
will account for more than 40% of the total increase in this group.
At the same time, production growth in the U.S. is expected to
remain below 2025 levels,” the institute’s report states.
