BAKU, Azerbaijan, August 18. Azerbaijan has
revised its macroeconomic forecasts for 2026 following the first
six months of economic and fiscal results, as well as changes in
expectations for global economic growth and energy prices, the
Finance Ministry said.


The economy is now expected to grow by 1.7% in real terms in
2026, with gross domestic product reaching $81.18 billion (AZN
138.0 billion). That is AZN 3.9 billion ($2.29 billion) higher in
nominal terms than the forecast used when the state budget draft
was prepared.


Non-oil GDP is expected to grow by 3.1% in real terms to $58.82
billion (AZN 100.0 billion), which is AZN 1.7 billion ($1.0
billion) lower in nominal terms than the previous forecast.


The ministry said lower-than-expected growth in the construction
and tourism sectors had weighed on the outlook for the broader
non-oil and gas economy.


As a result, the forecast for real growth in the non-oil and gas
sector in 2026 was cut to 3.1% from 5.0%.


The ministry also raised its forecast for average annual
inflation in 2026 to 5.7% from 4.8%, citing actual inflation in the
first part of the year, global commodity and food prices and their
impact on import prices, changes in regulated prices for goods and
services, and other factors.







The ministry said higher energy prices amid continuing
geopolitical tensions in the Middle East had increased inflationary
pressures and raised expectations of tighter monetary policy.


Global growth forecasts have also been revised by major
international financial institutions.


The International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowered its 2026 global
growth forecast by 0.1 percentage point from its April forecast to
3.0% in its latest July outlook. The World Bank also cut its 2026
global growth forecast by 0.1 percentage point in June, to
2.5%.


International financial institutions and agencies currently
expect the average annual price of crude oil to be in the range of
$82-$94 per barrel in 2026.


The IMF's July forecast assumed an average oil price of about
$89 per barrel for 2026 based on market pricing at the time, while
the World Bank's June outlook projected Brent crude at an average
of $94 per barrel.