BAKU, Azerbaijan, October 20. Full restoration
of liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies through the Strait of
Hormuz may not occur until April 2027, according to the baseline
scenario in an updated analysis of LNG supplies from the Persian
Gulf published by the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies
(OIES).


The assessment is outlined in OIES’ report, What Next for Hormuz
LNG? Alternative Scenarios.


According to the report, diplomatic efforts to agree on terms
for the safe and reliable resumption of shipping through the strait
have stalled as the US midterm elections scheduled for early
November approach. The report notes that the White House rejected
Iran’s proposed seven-day peace plan in late September.


The report states that the United States has established an
effective embargo on Iranian oil exports from the Persian Gulf but
has been unable to eliminate the threat Iran poses to shipping
without an agreement. “Both sides have attacked commercial vessels
attempting to transit the strait, disabling them and, in some
cases, sinking them,” the report says.


Attempts to organize a regional conference between Iran and
neighboring members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) also
failed in mid-September, according to the report. The failure
stemmed from a lack of agreement on Iran’s proposal to introduce
transit fees and establish control over energy exports passing
through the strait.


“There are no signs of an imminent breakthrough in the political
deadlock. The longer the energy market price shock persists, the
greater the risk of higher prices and LNG supply disruptions for
importing countries as winter approaches in the Northern
Hemisphere,” the report says.


In an earlier study published in late March, OIES analyst Mike
Fulwood examined three scenarios for the recovery of LNG supplies.
The most optimistic envisaged deliveries resuming by early summer
2026. A second scenario projected a resumption after the summer,
with supply volumes approaching normal levels by mid-November 2026,
except for Qatar’s damaged liquefaction trains. The most adverse
scenario envisaged a year-long shutdown, with undamaged trains
returning to service by April 2027.







According to OIES’ earlier analysis, if the Strait of Hormuz
remained effectively closed until around mid-November 2026, prices
at the European Title Transfer Facility (TTF) gas hub could average
more than $25 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) for the
rest of the year. If the disruption continued until April 2027,
prices could rise significantly above $30 per MMBtu.


Before the crisis, in February 2026, TTF futures prices stood at
$10–$11 per MMBtu. At the time the updated report was prepared,
futures prices were around $28, according to the report.


The updated OIES analysis examines three additional scenarios
alongside the baseline case, which assumes that LNG supplies will
fully recover in April 2027.


The first scenario envisages a recovery in October 2027, six
months later than in the baseline case. It assumes a gradual
increase in supplies over the summer, followed by the full
resumption of operations at undamaged liquefaction trains in
October.


The second scenario assumes that restrictions persist, with LNG
supplies from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) remaining at
their current level throughout 2028. The report puts this level at
just under 2 billion cubic meters per month. These volumes would
primarily serve consumers within the Persian Gulf region, including
Kuwait. Under this scenario, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz
would not fully resume.


The third scenario projects that LNG supplies from Persian Gulf
countries will recover to 50% of pre-crisis levels starting in
January 2027. It models a situation in which LNG exporters in Qatar
and the UAE encounter difficulties negotiating transit terms or are
unable to fully adapt to security risks associated with
transporting cargoes, OIES reports.