BAKU, Azerbaijan, October 26. Armenia should
take concrete steps instead of delaying the peace process,
Azerbaijani political analyst Azer Garayev told Trend.
According to him, after many years of conflict in the South
Caucasus, a real opportunity has emerged to achieve peace between
Azerbaijan and Armenia. The signing of the peace agreement can
create conditions for the beginning of a new stage in the region,
the expansion of economic relations, and the prevention of future
conflicts. However, political statements aren’t enough for this,
and the parties should take concrete steps and fulfill their
obligations.
“Azerbaijan has repeatedly declared its readiness to sign a
peace treaty with Armenia. The position of official Baku is clear:
the chapter of the past conflict must be closed, mutual territorial
integrity must be respected, and relations must be established
based on the principles of international law. Such an approach also
offers Armenia the opportunity to emerge from a long-standing
confrontation, participate in regional cooperation, and expand its
economic prospects.
However, it remains an open question as to how soon this
opportunity will be realized. Although significant progress has
been made in the negotiations, a peace treaty has not yet been
fully signed. The approach taken by the Armenian authorities toward
certain issues, as well as their suggestion of distant dates for
the signing of the treaty, raises questions as to why the process
is being prolonged. If a genuine opportunity for peace exists, why
should the conclusion of this process be delayed for years?
"Armenia might think that by dragging out the process, it is
gaining time. However, such a delay actually harms its own
interests. Normalizing relations with Azerbaijan is crucial for
Armenia to emerge from regional isolation and to benefit from
transport links and opportunities for economic cooperation. Yet,
these opportunities can only be realized through political
decisions and concrete steps. In other words, delaying peace
doesn't merely slow down the political process, but also postpones
the opportunities that have arisen for Armenia," he remarked.
Garayev pointed out that Azerbaijan has repeatedly articulated
its position on this matter. On March 13, 2025, the Ministry of
Foreign Affairs of Azerbaijan announced the conclusion of
negotiations regarding the text of a peace treaty between the two
countries. Nevertheless, official Baku has stipulated that the
removal of provisions from the Armenian Constitution, which it
links to claims against Azerbaijan’s sovereignty and territorial
integrity, is a necessary condition for the signing of the
agreement.
"The next significant milestone took place on August 8, 2025, in
Washington. The leaders of Azerbaijan and Armenia initialed the
text of an agreement on the establishment of peace and adopted a
joint declaration. This represented substantial progress in the
negotiation process. However, the initialing of the document does
not equate to a fully signed peace treaty that has entered into
force. Achieving the final outcome still requires political will
and concrete decisions from the parties.
At the heart of the issue lies the Constitution of Armenia. The
reference to Armenia’s Declaration of Independence is linked to
past claims regarding Karabakh and carries the risk that
territorial claims could be revived in the future. Official Baku
has stated that the long-term viability of any agreement signed
without resolving this contradiction could be called into
question," he noted.
The analyst emphasized that one of the points raising the most
questions concerns the statements made by Armenian Prime Minister
Nikol Pashinyan regarding the timing of the agreement's signing.
Uncertainty has increased following Pashinyan’s statement on
October 15, 2026, that the agreement should be signed and ratified
by 2031, contrasted with his remark just a week later, on October
22, that the agreement could potentially be signed between 2027 and
2028.
"If the text of the peace treaty has already been agreed upon
and the parties have made significant progress, why is there a need
to prolong the process further? Certainly, a lasting peace requires
the resolution of legal and political issues. However, discussing
distant timeframes instead of taking concrete steps does not
strengthen mutual trust; rather, it prolongs uncertainty.
The Azerbaijani side has stated that the treaty could be signed
the very next day, provided that the necessary amendments are made
to the Constitution of Armenia. This position clearly reflects
Baku’s expectations: the resolution of issues deemed contentious
and the strengthening of the legal foundations for peace. It means
that the issue is not merely the date on which the treaty is
signed, but rather the extent to which it will remain robust and
reliable in the future.
The Armenian authorities must understand that they cannot gain
any additional advantage by dragging out the peace process. On the
contrary, such delays could limit opportunities for regional
cooperation, hinder the establishment of economic ties, and impede
the development of mutual trust. Peace with Azerbaijan represents a
genuine opportunity for Armenia to secure a more stable and secure
future," he explained.
Garayev noted that Armenia faces a choice: either seize the
current opportunity to contribute to the realization of peace, or
prolong the process and leave both its own future and that of the
region in a state of uncertainty.
"Azerbaijan’s position and expectations are clear. The key
question now is how effectively Armenia will utilize this
opportunity. Peace is not merely the absence of war; it entails
respect for mutual territorial integrity, legal guarantees, and
clear commitments. Building relations between Azerbaijan and
Armenia on these principles could pave the way for a new phase in
the South Caucasus. Instead of dragging out the process, Armenia
should take concrete steps, because delaying peace also means
forfeiting future opportunities," the analyst added.
