BAKU, Azerbaijan, October 30. The average
global price of diesel fuel in 2026 is expected to be $135 per
barrel, compared with $91 in 2025, and in 2027, the price will fall
to $122 per barrel.


This was reflected in a forecast by analysts at BMI, a unit of
Fitch Solutions.


Restricted Strait of Hormuz transit will sustain elevated diesel
prices at least through Q1 2027.


“The disruption has tightened the diesel market by limiting the
effective availability of Middle Eastern crude and refined
products, rather than by creating a broad shortage of global crude
oil,” the analysts noted.


According to their estimates, the disruption will mostly impact
markets in the Atlantic Basin. In particular, New York diesel
prices will average $143 per barrel in 2026 and $126 per barrel in
2027. Meanwhile, prices can exceed $200 per barrel during several
weeks in 2026.


BMI pointed out that the U.S.-Iran conflict has increased
freight, insurance, security, and financing costs for seaborne
cargoes. These costs are particularly significant for
import-dependent Atlantic Basin markets, where replacement supplies
require longer voyages and compete for limited tanker
availability.


Low commercial inventories have reduced the market’s ability to
absorb delayed cargoes, refinery outages, or further export
restrictions.







According to the BMI forecast, from 2028, the restoration of
trade flows and rebuilding of inventories will reduce diesel
prices.


“However, demand from freight, agriculture and industry will
keep prices above pre-disruption levels in key markets,” the report
said.


The analysts also warned that supply increase outside the Middle
East will only partly offset disrupted product flows, as logistical
constraints and low inventories limit the pace of market
rebalancing.


According to BMI estimates, the probability of a preliminary
agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz in Q4 2026 amounts to 25%,
in Q1 2027 - 40%, and in Q2 2027 - 5%. The remaining 30%
probability is assigned to a return to high-intensity conflict
before a preliminary agreement is reached.


“This assessment indicates that disruption risks will remain
material through Q1 2027, the most likely period for an initial
agreement,” the report added.