BAKU, Azerbaijan, September 4. Kazakhstan’s
National Bank has kept its inflation forecast for 2026 unchanged at
9–11%, while raising its forecast for 2027 to 6.5–8.5% from the
previously projected 5.5–7.5%, the NBK announced.
The National Bank said that moderate tight monetary conditions
and a strong tenge exchange rate will contribute to slower price
growth. Additional restrictive pressure will come from the final
stage of increasing minimum reserve requirements in September
2026.
"The forecast for 2027 has been revised upward to 6.5–8.5% (from
5.5–7.5%), due to higher external inflation, revised assumptions
for regulated prices, and an increase in the fiscal impulse. At the
same time, the accumulated tightness of monetary policy will
continue to limit inflationary pressure and contribute to further
slowing price growth," the National Bank said.
Inflation is expected to stabilize close to the 5% target in
2028 as the external inflationary environment normalizes, fiscal
consolidation takes place, domestic demand normalizes, and
inflation expectations decline amid moderately tight monetary
conditions.
Moreover, the National Bank declared that the balance of
inflation risks remains tilted to the upside.
"The main risks are associated with expanding domestic demand
amid a stronger fiscal impulse, unanchored inflation expectations,
and further developments in fuel prices and utility tariffs.
External risks are driven by rising global food and energy prices
amid a possible escalation of geopolitical tensions," the National
Bank said.
