BAKU, Azerbaijan, October 19. Oil production in
the Middle East will reach 30 million barrels per day by 2030.


According to the report “Energy Transition Outlook 2026” by the
international expert organization DNV, in 2026, the crisis in the
Strait of Hormuz led to one of the most significant disruptions in
oil supplies in recent decades. However, its long-term consequences
will be primarily linked to changes in demand dynamics.


The report notes that, at the time of its preparation, shipping
through the Strait of Hormuz remained severely disrupted. Global
oil production is expected to decline by more than 5% in 2026, or
approximately 4.5 million barrels per day.


At the same time, demand for crude oil, according to DNV’s
estimates, declined to a lesser extent – by approximately 2% or
about 2 million barrels per day. Consumption was affected by high
prices, fuel shortages, and China’s economic slowdown. The
resulting supply shortfall was covered by strategic and commercial
reserves.


“By 2027, the market will return to balance, and production and
demand will recover,” the report notes.


However, DNV emphasizes that the long-term impact of the crisis
will be linked to a shift in the trajectory of demand. Among the
factors already influencing the market are the end of the
post-pandemic recovery in tourism, a slowdown in industrial
activity, and the accelerating adoption of electric vehicles.


According to DNV’s forecast, the transportation sector, which
remains the largest segment of global oil demand, will peak just
before 2030, at approximately 117 exajoules (EJ), or 70% of total
demand.







"By 2040, oil consumption in the transportation sector will
decline to 104 ExJ, and by 2060, to 50 ExJ. At the same time, its
share of total demand will be 60%, despite a significant reduction
in overall consumption.


Demand for oil for non-energy purposes, including petrochemical
production, declined even more sharply than in the transportation
sector in 2026. This will have a long-term impact on its
recovery.


Once the conflict ends, oil production will exceed consumption
for some time. This is due to the need to replenish strategic
reserves, which countries have been drawing on since March 2026. At
that time, the International Energy Agency (IEA) coordinated the
largest release of oil from reserves in its history.


Oil production in the Middle East will reach 30 million barrels
per day by 2030. The region’s share of global production will
recover to approximately 36% by that time and reach 40% by 2060,”
the report states.


As noted in the study, the shift in regional shares of global
oil production is primarily due to a decline in overall global
demand, rather than physical damage to oil production
infrastructure.


“North America will be the main region to benefit from the shift
in the global market structure. According to the forecast, its oil
production in 2060 will amount to 9 million barrels per day,
compared to the 7.5 million barrels per day projected a year
earlier,” DNV reports.