BAKU, Azerbaijan, August 27. Kazakhstan's
average annual real GDP growth is forecast to exceed 5% in
2027-2029.
This was announced by the press service of the Kazakh
government, following a cabinet meeting chaired by Prime Minister
Olzhas Bektanov and dedicated to the country’s socioeconomic
development forecast.
According to the Kazakh government, in the course of the
meeting, the Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of National Economy
Serik Zhumangarin presented the macroeconomic parameters and budget
forecast, which take into account global economic prospects and
conditions on external markets.
''Under the baseline scenario, real GDP growth is projected at
5.3% in 2027, 5.5% in 2028 and 5.4% in 2029. Nominal GDP is
expected to increase from 199.3 trillion tenge (about $420 billion)
in 2027 to 245 trillion tenge ($516 billion) in 2029. Economic
growth will be driven primarily by increased output in non-oil
sectors. Manufacturing is expected to grow by an average of 5.9%
annually, outpacing mining, where growth is forecast at 2%,'' the
information notes.
Metallurgy, machinery, construction materials, chemicals and
food production will make the largest contribution to manufacturing
growth.
''Agriculture will also become one of the drivers of economic
growth, with average annual growth of at least 5%. In construction,
growth is projected to accelerate from 16% in 2027 to 17.3% in
2029,'' Zhumangarin said.
He added that this growth would be supported by the
implementation of projects to develop transport and logistics,
energy and water infrastructure, as well as the modernization of
housing, utilities and social infrastructure.
The services sector is also expected to maintain steady growth.
Trade is projected to expand by an average of 5.7% per year,
information and communications by 9.2%, and transport and
warehousing by 10.4%.
Kazakhstan is expected to maintain a positive foreign trade
balance. Goods exports are forecast to rise from $82.8 billion in
2027 to $88.5 billion in 2029, while imports are projected to
increase from $80.5 billion to $88.4 billion.
Inflation is projected at 7.5%-9.5% in 2027, followed by a
decline to 6%-8% in 2028-2029.
Republican budget revenues excluding transfers are projected at
19.9 trillion tenge ($41.9 billion) in 2027, 21.7 trillion tenge
($45.7 billion) in 2028, and 23.4 trillion tenge ($49.3 billion) in
2029.
The guaranteed transfer from the National Fund is set at 2.4
trillion tenge ($5.1 billion) in 2027-2028 and 2 trillion tenge
($4.2 billion) in 2029, in line with the budget rule. Targeted
transfers from the National Fund for critical facilities and
projects of national importance are planned at 2 trillion tenge
($4.2 billion) in 2027 and 1.5 trillion tenge ($3.2 billion)
annually in 2028-2029.
Republican budget expenditures are projected at 30.2 trillion
tenge ($63.6 billion) in 2027, 29.4 trillion tenge ($61.9 billion)
in 2028 and 29.6 trillion tenge ($62.4 billion) in 2029.
To maintain the sustainability of public finances, the budget
deficit is forecast to decline from 2.3% of GDP in 2027 to 0.4% in
2029. The non-oil deficit is expected to decrease from 5.3% to 2.5%
of GDP over the same period.
Meanwhile, National Fund assets are projected to increase. Total
inflows are expected at 5.1 trillion tenge ($10.7 billion) in 2027,
5.5 trillion tenge ($11.6 billion) in 2028, and 5.7 trillion tenge
($12 billion) in 2029, while net inflows are forecast at 0.5
trillion tenge ($1.1 billion), 1.4 trillion tenge ($3 billion), and
2 trillion tenge ($4.2 billion), respectively.
The National Fund's foreign currency assets are expected to rise
from $65.2 billion in 2027 to $70.6 billion in 2029.
According to Trend's analysis, Kazakhstan's 2027-2029 economic
outlook points to a gradual shift in the structure of economic
growth, with non-oil sectors expected to make a larger contribution
to overall GDP expansion. The projected 5.3%-5.5% annual growth is
underpinned by manufacturing, agriculture, construction, and
services, while mining is expected to grow at a more moderate 2%.
Particularly notable are the projected growth rates in transport
and warehousing, information and communications, and construction,
which indicate that infrastructure development, logistics and
digitalization are likely to remain key areas of economic activity.
The stronger performance of manufacturing compared with mining also
suggests that Kazakhstan is seeking to deepen domestic processing
and increase the role of higher value-added industries, including
metallurgy, machinery, chemicals and construction materials.
At the same time, the fiscal projections indicate an attempt to
balance economic expansion with greater budget sustainability. The
decline in the budget deficit from 2.3% of GDP in 2027 to 0.4% in
2029, alongside a reduction in the non-oil deficit, points to a
gradual consolidation of public finances.
However, the continued use of guaranteed and targeted transfers
from the National Fund shows that state support will remain
important for financing major infrastructure and nationally
significant projects. The projected increase in the Fund's foreign
currency assets to $70.6 billion by 2029 could provide Kazakhstan
with a stronger financial buffer against external shocks, including
commodity price volatility. Overall, the forecast suggests a policy
mix aimed at maintaining relatively high growth while gradually
strengthening the economy's non-oil base and fiscal resilience.
